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日期/Date
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活动/activity
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地点/venue
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2019年1月9日15:00
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讲座：A novel stochastic modelling approach for
operational real-time ice-jam flood forecasting
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京师科技大厦1609
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2019年1月10日
8:30-16:30
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课程：Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam
floods (Part 1)
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京师科技大厦1609
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2019年1月11日
8:30-16:30
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课程：Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam
floods (Part 2)
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京师科技大厦1609
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Abstract
of the seminar
Forecasting ice jams and their
consequential flooding is more challenging than predicting open water flood
conditions. This is due to the chaotic nature of ice jam formation since slight
changes in water and ice flows, location of the ice jam toe along the river and
initial water levels at the time of jam formation can lead to marked
differences in the outcome of backwater level elevations and flood severity. In
this paper, we introduce a novel, operational real-time flood forecasting
system that captures this stochastic nature of ice-jam floods and places the
forecasts in a probabilistic context in the form of flood hazard maps
(probability of flood extents and depths). This novel system was tested
successfully for the ice-cover breakup
period in the spring of 2018 along the
Athabasca River at the Town of Fort McMurray, Canada
Contents
of the short courses
Introduction
l River freeze-up (theory)
l River ice monitoring
l River ice-cover breakup, ice jamming and ice jam flooding
l Forecasting ice thicknesses (with numerical exercise)
l Modelling river ice processes
l River ice jam flood risk
l River ice jam mitigation
Introduction
of Karl Lindenschmidt
Dr. Karl Lindenschmidt is now working as
Associate Professor at School of Environment and Sustainability, Usask and
Global Institute for Water Security. He has been engaged in surface water
quality modelling, river ice processes, climate change and river morphology,
flood and flood risk management and achieved excellent academic results. He is
now member of International Association for Hydrological Sciences and Board
member of Canadian Association of Water Resources (Saskatchewan Branch).
Through his academic life, he has taught lectures at University of Saskatchewan,
University of Winnipeg, Cambridge University, etc.